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Commodities

Follow energy, metals and agriculture, grouped by sector.

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Changes compare consecutive periodic observations; no figure here is a live trading price. Sorting stays within groups; percentage and percentage-point changes stay separate.

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My markets

A series is in My markets when its asset class, its country or its commodity group is chosen. The number beside each choice counts its stored forecasts.

How the screener ranks

What is listed
Only series that already hold a stored forecast made from their latest stored data. The screener reads stored figures and never starts a forecast.
Move
The change from the latest value to the forecast at the chosen horizon: percent for a level, percentage points for a rate, the series’ own unit when a level is zero or negative. Sorting keeps the three apart.
vs uncertainty
The move divided by the forecast’s own calibrated 80% band on the side facing the latest value, in standard deviations. It ranks moves across series and is never a probability.
Band
Whether the latest value lies outside the forecast’s calibrated 50%, 80% or 95% band at the horizon.
Error / baseline
The model’s total error over past tests divided by the error of a no-change forecast. Below 1.00 the model did better.
Direction
Past tests where the forecast called the direction of the change correctly, over the tests that had a direction to call.
Evidence
The label of the series page. The default screen lists only series whose model beat the baseline by a tenth or more over at least six tests. Figures are withheld when the tests belong to another model than the one that made the forecast.
Stale
The history was last pulled more than a day ago, so newer data may exist. Stale series are left out unless you include them.
Reading the top of the list
Ranking many series by their largest move overstates the top rows: part of an extreme figure is forecast error, and it tends to shrink on the next forecast.