AgenticVietnam FDI YoY YTD
Capital & Markets · Monthly series · EC-VN-FDI
Latest, October 2026
13.1%
+0.98pp from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 11.7%, with an 80% interval of 5.2% to 19.7%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 13.0% | 10.3% | 15.1% |
| December 2026 | 12.9% | 10.8% | 14.9% |
| January 2027 | 12.8% | 0.7% | 25.4% |
| February 2027 | 12.6% | 0.9% | 25.4% |
| March 2027 | 12.5% | 3.0% | 23.3% |
| April 2027 | 12.4% | 2.4% | 24.3% |
| May 2027 | 12.2% | 3.4% | 22.6% |
| June 2027 | 12.1% | 3.6% | 22.3% |
| July 2027 | 11.9% | 4.1% | 21.3% |
| August 2027 | 11.8% | 3.6% | 21.9% |
| September 2027 | 11.7% | 2.7% | 23.0% |
| October 2027 | 11.7% | 5.2% | 19.7% |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +11%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 7 won)
- Direction
- 58%No clear edge over a coin flip (84 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 9 of 72Anticipated some turns (72 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 11% lowerError ratio 0.89; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-09-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 13.1% |
| September 2026 | 12.1% |
| August 2026 | 12.3% |
| July 2026 | 11.8% |
| June 2026 | 11.2% |
| May 2026 | 9.6% |
| April 2026 | 9.8% |
| March 2026 | 9.1% |
| February 2026 | 8.8% |
| January 2026 | 11.3% |
| December 2025 | 9.0% |
| November 2025 | 8.9% |
| October 2025 | 8.8% |
| September 2025 | 8.7% |
| August 2025 | 8.8% |
| July 2025 | 8.4% |
| June 2025 | 8.1% |
| May 2025 | 7.9% |
| April 2025 | 7.3% |
| March 2025 | 7.8% |
| February 2025 | 5.4% |
| January 2025 | 2.0% |
| December 2024 | 9.4% |
| November 2024 | 7.1% |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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